8 Member Time-lagged Ensemble - Probability Plots
The ensemble probability fields available from this page are numerical probabilities based upon the four concurrent members and the four members from the previous run (3 hours prior). A weighting of 1.5X is applied to the members from the current run in comparison to those from the previous run. This weighting results in the current run being responsible for 60% of each overall probability (with each member contributing 15%), and the previous run being responsible for 40% of each overall probability (with each member contributing 10%). For example, if one of four current solutions satisfies the given criteria, and none of the four previous solutions satisfies the given criteria, the probability would be 15% (if one of the current and one of the previous satisfied, it would be 25%). Due to the high resolution of the simulations, probabilities calculated in this manner are not appropriate for storm scale fields such as updraft helicity, updraft velocity, etc. Although not yet available, neighborhood probability output will be generated for storm scale fields (as well as reflectivity output) in order to provide a more meaningful representation of their distribution amongst the ensemble members. Those neighborhood probabilities will be added to this page once they become available.
Click here for configuration information on each member.
DISCLAIMER: The mesoscale prognostics depicted on these pages may not be available at all times. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed nor warranted in any way. The data is provided as is and should not be used as the sole resource for decision making. Mesoscale forecast guidance is best interpreted by a professional meteorologist who is familiar with the particular modeling system, including any model biases.
Please contact Tom Hultquist with questions and/or concerns about this page or the model information it is displaying.