4 Concurrent Member Ensemble - Probability Plots
The ensemble probability fields available from this page are simple numerical probabilities based upon the four concurrent members, where each member has equal weighting in the calculation. For example, if one of four solutions satisfies the given criteria the probability would be 25% (if two of four, then it would be 50%). Due to the high resolution of the simulations, probabilities calculated in this manner are not appropriate for storm scale fields such as updraft helicity, updraft velocity, etc. Although not yet available, neighborhood probability output will be generated for storm scale fields (as well as reflectivity output) in order to provide a more meaningful representation of their distribution amongst the ensemble members. Those neighborhood probabilities will be added to this page once they become available.
Click here for configuration information on each member.
DISCLAIMER: The mesoscale prognostics depicted on these pages may not be available at all times. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed nor warranted in any way. The data is provided as is and should not be used as the sole resource for decision making. Mesoscale forecast guidance is best interpreted by a professional meteorologist who is familiar with the particular modeling system, including any model biases.
Please contact Tom Hultquist with questions and/or concerns about this page or the model information it is displaying.