8 Member Time-lagged Ensemble - Mean Fields
The ensemble mean fields available from this page are numerical averages of the four concurrent members and the four members from the previous run (3 hours prior). A weighting of 1.5X is applied to the members from the current run in comparison to those from the previous run. This weighting results in the current run being responsible for 60% of the overall mean (with each member contributing 15%), and the previous run being responsible for 40% of the overall mean (with each member contributing 10%). This weighting method may be adjusted in the future as the performance is assessed. Due to the high resolution of the solutions, means calculated in this manner are not appropriate for storm scale fields such as updraft helicity, updraft velocity, etc. This method can also give misleading information for simulated reflectivity fields when precipitation is convective in nature. Although not yet available, neighborhood probability output will be generated for such storm scale fields in order to provide a more meaningful representation of their distribution amongst the ensemble members.
Click here for configuration information on each member.
DISCLAIMER: The mesoscale prognostics depicted on these pages may not be available at all times. The accuracy or reliability of the data is not guaranteed nor warranted in any way. The data is provided as is and should not be used as the sole resource for decision making. Mesoscale forecast guidance is best interpreted by a professional meteorologist who is familiar with the particular modeling system, including any model biases.
Please contact Tom Hultquist with questions and/or concerns about this page or the model information it is displaying.